Dethroning Noynoy

DATELINE MANILA
by: BINGO P. DEJARESCO

Per 3rd quarter Social Weather Station (SWS) survey, if elections were held today Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III would be elected president by landslide. Higher than even the post- Marcos record of 38% majority win of then highly-popular Erap Estrada in 1998.

That late September (single candidate) survey showed Aquino (51%), Villar (20%), Erap (11%), Escudero (8%) and the rest (10%).

So even if all other votes would go to a single candidate like Villar, Noynoy will still win by a million votes over all of them or 2% of the 50 million voters as hypothetical voters’ total number. Noynoy will garner 51% and the rest only 49%.

In the 2-year quarterly SWS surveys (September 2007 - September 2009), Noynoy shot like a galactic meteor from zero to 51% (even 60% on a three choices of candidates survey). In the three-candidate survey, senator Manny Villar has not been a pushover, either - escalating from (Sept 2007) 18% to (2008) 28% to (2009) 37%.

Less dramatic was Erap’s ascension from (2007) 5% to (2008) 13% and (2009) 18%.

Chiz Escudero (just out of NPC) is lukewarm: from (2007) 13% to (2008) 16% and (2009) 15%. Gibo Teodoro, though moving from less than 1% to a 4% in September, is actually a disappointment since he and Noynoy (60%) appeared at the scene almost simultaneously.

Aquino’s running-mate, Senator Mar Roxas topped the vice-presidential race in that same September (single candidate survey) at (38%), followed by Escudero (21%), Legarda (17%), Binay (6%) and Jinggoy Estrada (6%).

Since Roxas topped the VP derby, it is only natural that when he combines strength with frontrunner Aquino, their tandem will stretch their total higher than Aquino standing alone.

Thus in the tandem surveys:

Aquino-Roxas (57%), Villar-De Castro (19%), Escudero-Legarda (9%) and Estrada-Binay (9%). The problem with that equation is that Noli de Castro has not declared his candidacy as Villar’s running- mate. Thus that ranking is a hypothetical No. 2. Two things are certain, though. Last October 21 (Wednesday), former President Erap Estrada and Makati Mayor Jojo Binay will be proclaimed the UNO (United Opposition) candidates at Plaza Hernandez in Tondo.

Not to be outdone, senator Loren Legarda was expected to declare her vice presidential candidacy bid at the historic Luneta last October 23.

Legarda clearly articulated that she will remain opposition - throwing ice-cold water to Lakas’ overtures to be Gibo Teodoro’s running mate for the administration.

It is public knowledge that Villar and Legarda had been at odds on many issues in recent months although some courtship had ensued for the lady senator to be Villar’s running-mate.

Villar’s Nacionalista Party is not throwing the towel in favor of Noynoy yet - but had a rude wake up call - since Villar had topped most of the surveys until the Noynoy Phenomenon surfaced.

The Lakas’ optimism banks on its control of local politicians and the residual value of the sitting president, regardless. Meantime, the truism of the “GMA: Kiss of Death” theory and the backlash of the two storms’ aftermath (which will be mostly anti-administration) will be severely tested from hereon till election day. That sort of balances political machinery and everyday realities of Juan de la Cruz.

So, what will the political rivals do to dethrone Noynoy from his throne today? At first, they dismissed Noynoy’s first survey win as just a Luzon-NCR phenomenon till the nationwide results shut their mouths quiet.

Erstwhile presidential candidate senator Panfilo Lacson had warned Noynoy to watch his back and his steps forward as every bad occasion will be magnified into the blackest and most vicious of propaganda. The “fruit from the good tree” must be stoned down - will be the motto of all Palace pretenders from hereon.

Already, the mud-throwing has started. That Noynoy had a lackluster performance as Congressman and senator; that he lacks public speaking skills of his Dad, the flamboyant Ninoy; that he has to explain for the Aquino-Cojuangco families the relative mess at the familyowned Hacienda Luisita; that he is Kris Aquino’s baby boy.

That he needs a personality upgrade to presidentiable; that he is Mr. Clueless on the presidency; that he is just one elitist replacing another; that his one million signatures nor the “Piso for Noynoy” did not really take off the ground.

That his platform is a spate of generics lacking in specific targets; that his girlfriend top Valenzuela councilor Shalani Soledad at 29 is running for 2nd district congressional seat of Bulacan; that he has not done anything close to what his father Ninoy and mother Cory did for the country.

But one must also remember that people had said worse things about Cory when she first challenged Marcos for the presidency in 1986. De facto, she won that contest. If for nothing else, Noynoy the lawyer, a three-time congressman and senator is better prepared for the presidency than his “housewife” mother in 1986. Then, the issue will have to boil down to one: character.

The Filipino people must continue to believe that Noynoy has the sterling qualities to qualify him to be the agent of change - a yearning of Filipinos (maybe not translated into People Power, as we know it) that is today as passionate as Lapulapu’s defense of Mactan, the Filipino patriots’ stand at Tirad Pass and the Death March in Bataan in World War II.

In that sense, only Noynoy can beat Noynoy. Unless there is a huge stinking skeleton hidden in his Aquino closet or he blows his campaign with an irresponsible position on a grave issue of national gravitas - the Aquino heir of the iconic family is the “man to beat”.

Dethroning him would require - definitely - more than just wishful thinking.